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By Sandrine Paillard, Sébastien Treyer, Bruno Dorin

How will the area have the capacity to feed just about nine billion humans in 2050 and nonetheless hold the ecosystems? during this point of view, INRA and CIRAD introduced the initiative, in 2006, to advance a foresight undertaking for analysing concerns relating the world's nutrients and agricultural platforms at the 2050 timeline. This booklet presents a man-made presentation of the most conclusions that this foresight venture has yielded. First, it recapitulates the most statistical references for the interval 1961 to 2003, sooner than occurring to explain the Agribiom simulation instrument used to calculate foodstuff biomass source use balances. situations at the 2050 timeline are then thought of: Agrimonde move is a trend-based state of affairs that bets on monetary development to feed the realm, in a context the place environmental safety isn't a concern; by contrast, the assumption in Agrimonde 1 is to feed the area whereas conserving its ecosystems.

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However this accounting is imperfect and complex. In particular, we had to formulate and test various options for classifying lines into “primary” or “secondary” products, in order to avoid double counts (especially for production) and finally to obtain relatively balanced resource-use ratios on a global scale, in terms of total calories as well as macronutrients, over 43 years, without the “food manufacture” section. g. g. groundnut oil and groundnut oilcakes) according to processing yields for which data are not available.

3 billion hectares of pastures34 and over half a billion hectares of cultivated land35.  58.  63). 34 35 26 B. Dorin and T. L. Cotty concern when it comes to sanitary problems (epizootics) and environmental issues, especially regarding soil (erosion due to overgrazing), water (consumption, pollution) and greenhouse gas emissions (Steinfeld et al. 2006). Yet, despite the importance of animal husbandry from an economic or ecological point of view, there is a serious lack of statistical data on the subject on a global scale.

As the relative share of feed in the production increases, its average productivity decreases (the Output/Input ratio decreases). This evolution is generally accompanied by a decreasing share of rumi outputs in the total animal outputs (prod_rumi and prod_mono). The result of this procedure respects the constraints of the two production functions, but excludes any possibility to fix in advance the rumi/mono proportion in the total amount of outputs. This possibility requires an alternative resolution that also exists in Agribiom, by choosing one or the other of the two production functions.

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